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Election prediction

 

July 2 2020

I make my first prediction for the presidential election this November. Also, a MaraDNS release. 314 words

==My prediction==

My first prediction for the November 3 presidential election

In this prediction, which I made over at 270towin.com, I predict that Biden will beat Trump with 308 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are needed to win). I predict that Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida will flip blue this year. This map is very similar to my 2016 prediction, the only difference being that I (correctly) predicted that Wisconsin would go to Trump.

The 2016 election, looking back, was bizarre. I think it is the first election where a candidate was caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women but still won.

Comparing things to 2016, when Trump did briefly out-poll Hillary at the national level in late May of 2016,1 Biden has been consistently out polling Trump.2

Looking at just Florida, a key battleground state, Hillary was 3.7 points ahead of Trump in polling four years ago today. Trump ultimately won the state by 1.2 points, because of voters who made up their mind in the final days before the election.3 Right now, Biden is 6.4 points ahead of Trump in Florida,4 a lead Clinton only had briefly in April of 2016.

As it turns out, Biden is polling even better in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin right now. For Trump to win come November, someone would need to come up with a COVID-19 vaccine within the next three months—a very long shot.5

==MaraDNS 3.5.0006 released==

I mentioned that MaraDNS 3.5.0006 was almost ready a few days ago. I have now released MaraDNS 3.5.0006; it is available at https://maradns.samiam.org or https://github.com/samboy/MaraDNS

This release mainly makes the Deadwood parser less strict with whitespace. This is one more step in my process of making MaraDNS a little easier to use with each release.

==Footnotes==

  1. RealClear Politics, General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
  2. RealClear Politics, General Election: Trump vs. Biden
  3. RealClear Politics, Florida: Trump vs. Clintion
  4. RealClear Politics, Florida: Trump vs. Biden
  5. Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker”, by Jonathan Corum, Denise Grady, Sui-Lee Wee and Carl Zimmer, published by The New York Times

The election map is public domain, obtained from the Wikipedia. Its SVG vector form is also available.

Did you know that all of my blog entries are available in a free to download eBook at https://www.samiam.org/blog/ebooks.html.

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