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Election prediction #3

 

October 4 2020

I make another prediction of how the election will go. 424 words

==What a week it has been!==

Last week, we have had three breaking events which significantly affect the election:

  • Trump’s tax returns were given to The New York Times, and we learned he only paid $750 in taxes a year in 2016 and 2017.
  • Trump lost his first debate to Joe Biden.
  • Trump has been diagnosed with COVID-19.

The third one (his COVID-19 diagnosis) is the most significant, because there is a non-zero chance Trump will pass away before the election.

Since a number of people on the Internet have been acting very inappropriately, wishing for Trump’s death, let me make something clear: I wish Trump well. My daughter and I have been praying for Trump, wishing him a quick recovery. To wish for Trump’s death is no better than the blockheads who, during the worst of the AIDS pandemic, declared AIDS a punishment from God (it is not). In both cases, it is not appropriate to ask God for someone to die.

==My new election prediction==

My third prediction for the November 3 presidential election

In this map, I am actually making two predictions:

  • In the first prediction, where Trump survives COVID-19, I predict that Biden will get both the states colored blue and colored purple in the above map. In other words, in addition to all of the states Clinton got in 2016, I predict that in a Biden vs. Trump race, Biden will pick up Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Florida. This will result in Biden winning with 319 electoral votes (EVs).
  • In the second prediction, where Trump passes away, I predict that Pence will get both the red and purple states in this map, and that Biden will only get the blue states. This means that, compared to 2016, Biden only picks up the rust belt: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, having the Democrats win with 279 EVs.

==See also==

A couple of other notable predictions:

  • The New York Times has an interesting model, because one of the models they have is “What if the polls are as inaccurate as they were in 2016?” Currently, in that model, Biden wins by 280 EVs (picking up, compared to 2016, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona).
  • 538, naturally, has a model currently predicting an 81% chance of a Biden victory. Compared to 2016, their model predicts that Biden will pick up Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Ohio. I think North Carolina and Ohio may be a bit of a stretch, but if we have 2012’s polling error, we’ll get both of them.

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