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Thursday election prediction
October 18 2012
In tonight's prediction, I am using NerdWallet's numbers from today. This
is otherwise very similar to yesterday's blog
No correlation between states
Assuming there is no correlation between the states, NerdWallet gives the
following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting
Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
The big three: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio
I have looked at how Romney's victory or loss in these three states affects
the election results based on Nerd Wallet's numbers:
Obama gets OH
Romney gets OH
Obama gets FL
Romney gets FL
As before, there are few paths to victory for Romney if Obama gets Florida.
Romney's chances decrease by over 10% if Obama gets either Ohio or Virginia.
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