This prediction is very similar to the prediction I made two months ago, the only difference being that I have some doubt that Wisconsin will flip to Biden on November 3.
Let’s look at this prediction in more detail.
Without Florida, Trump will need to repeat his 2016 performance in the Northern Rust Belt (PA/WI/MI/MN) to win, which looks unlikely.
So, let’s look at Florida’s polling. Right now, 538 claims that Biden has a 60% chance of getting Florida. I think they are being too conservative; I claim Biden has about an 80% chance because:
When I say “The Rust Belt”, I am talking about Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Biden, if he gets Florida, needs only Pennsylvania to win the election; if he can not get Pennsylvania, he can also win with Michigan and Minnesota.
Biden has a considerable advantage in the rust belt compared to Clinton in 2016: He does not have the problem with losing voters who were disappointed in Sanders’s defeat which Clinton had. 2016 Sanders voters are behind Biden here in 2020, which is enough to win the entire northern rust belt.
The only way Trump can get the rust belt is by trying to make Biden responsible for the unrest caused by far-left protesters; indeed, Biden polling numbers have been going down in the rust belt after the Kenosha unrest. There is a reason that Biden is making sure voters know he condemns the riots.
I have released MaraDNS 3.5.0016; in this release, coLunacyDNS now has 100% test coverage.* I have fixed a couple of minor bugs; there was some incorrect behavior if processQuery returned bad data which I found and corrected in my testing.
*Some sanity tests which protect coLunacyDNS from security threats which can not be readily reproduced are disabled in testing mode.
Did you know that all of my blog entries are available in a free to download eBook at https://www.samiam.org/blog/ebooks.html.